Tuesday, October 14, 2008

McCain's Insurance Reform Plan May Lower Uninsured Numbers

By Ethan Calvin

Previously, we posted an article saying that John McCain's proposal would cover only 2 million Americans. These numbers were reported by the Commonwealth Fund, which is more liberal leaning.

But there's a competing report by The Lewin Group (not sure where their political bias leans) that showed Senator McCain's plan would knock off 21 million Americans off the uninsured list by 2019, reported the Associated Press and the Los Angeles Times.

How would McCain's plan hit this 21 million number? The report estimated that close to 24 million people would use the tax credit provide by the federal government under McCain's plan and buy their own individual health insurance plans in the private market. It was conceded that around 16 million would lose their group health insurance plan with their employers. But the report thought some new businesses would jump in and offer health insurance for the first time, which would offset at least a part of that 16 million workers who lost coverage.

The study, though, was met with some skepticism. The biggest argument against the Lewin Group's report is that it doesn't account for people being denied coverage in the private market because of pre-existing health conditions. But the Lewin Group acknowledged that is accounted for in their report."The people who are sick are going to have a lot of trouble affording coverage, even with the credit," said Lewin Group Vice President, John Sheils.

Half of uninsured people today are between the ages of 19 and 34, says Sheils. Sheils says that is the group that McCain will comprise the biggest number of those who lost coverage from their employers. The report is interesting, but our gut feeling is that hte number could be inflated. - 15224

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