You may have noticed over the last month many countries have past bills in their governments to inject substantial amounts of cash into their banking system. They have done this on the understanding that all the bad loans also known as toxic debt is weakening the institutions and rendering us unable to borrow money so leaving us all worse off as a result.
So the big question is will injecting this money actually get the banks lending again and if they do, will it have any effect on us, the general public. In answering this question and dealing with the issues here I can only comment on our particular situation here in the United Kingdom. Whilst it may be similar in other parts of the world I cannot comment due to the fact that I am unfamiliar as to how their market works, so what may have an effect here may not be the case anywhere else.
The general public is under the impression that the credit crunch is due to the banks not having enough money to lend. Logic would then dictate that by giving the banks more money the problem is resolved. Unfortunately this is rather far from the truth. The lack of money to lend is only the tip of the iceberg. Banks have been burned by the bad debt accrued over the last few years and are therefore now much more cautious about lending again. Their careless actions in the past will prove much more difficult to rectify in times to come.
One of the principal areas to focus on when assessing the reasons for our present financial crisis is the area of house prices. As everyone knows they have taken a big tumble and there would seem to be no respite in the immediate future. Lenders are now facing a situation in which they have to implement more rigorous procedures and one of the targets is that of loan to value, or LTV, which is the amount that they are willing to loan dependent on the value of the property. They were lending from 95%LTV up to a staggering 125%LTV.
While the market is buoyant most annalists will agree this type of lending is OK. Think about it if you lend on a 100,000 house 125% which results in a loan of 125,000 and the house price rises over the next three years at a rate of 10% per annum, which was not unheard of. Then your LTV in three years time would only be 93% this is alright from a lending point of view and what would be considered an acceptable risk.
The problem now is that rather than rising by 10% per annum the housing prices are in fact dropping by that much, and they are set to drop even more. If you consider that drop, if a lender was to give 85,000 on a 100,000 property which continued to drop in value, in 3 years the LTV could rise to 118%, which in these turbulent times is simply not acceptable. This is why lenders are now slow to lend out quantities much over 85%.
So with regards to the money bailouts, what does this mean for our financial future? In my professional opinion I believe that there will be little overall effect, although with any luck time will prove me wrong. Although lenders are now obliged to lend in 2009 at the rates of 2007, as you will see from the first part of this article they won't be able to lend at the high LTV rates of 2007. The people who are now desperate to borrow are those coming out of rates already arranged in the past 5 years, and these borrowers are going to push the LTV to its limit because of the drop in house prices.
Another thing to consider is the high amount of self certification mortgages that have been arranged over the last 5 years. These types of mortgages will definitely be a rarity because they are seen as to high a risk and the institutions don?t want to know. And even if they are available the LTV will be far lower so what are the consequences in that scenario?
In conclusion, although the cash injections can only be welcomed as a step in the right direction, I fear that there will be little knock on effect whilst housing prices continue to plummet and lenders fail to meet the level of lending that was rife before 2008. It seems more likely that the money will be stored up for the future. This will unfortunately create a catch-22 situation where the prices continue to fall because of the low LTVs and the tight lending criteria, in turn making the lenders more nervous about lending. It seems to me that the only way out will be for someone to bite the bullet and take the risks again at lending, even taking into account the possible risks involved. - 15224
So the big question is will injecting this money actually get the banks lending again and if they do, will it have any effect on us, the general public. In answering this question and dealing with the issues here I can only comment on our particular situation here in the United Kingdom. Whilst it may be similar in other parts of the world I cannot comment due to the fact that I am unfamiliar as to how their market works, so what may have an effect here may not be the case anywhere else.
The general public is under the impression that the credit crunch is due to the banks not having enough money to lend. Logic would then dictate that by giving the banks more money the problem is resolved. Unfortunately this is rather far from the truth. The lack of money to lend is only the tip of the iceberg. Banks have been burned by the bad debt accrued over the last few years and are therefore now much more cautious about lending again. Their careless actions in the past will prove much more difficult to rectify in times to come.
One of the principal areas to focus on when assessing the reasons for our present financial crisis is the area of house prices. As everyone knows they have taken a big tumble and there would seem to be no respite in the immediate future. Lenders are now facing a situation in which they have to implement more rigorous procedures and one of the targets is that of loan to value, or LTV, which is the amount that they are willing to loan dependent on the value of the property. They were lending from 95%LTV up to a staggering 125%LTV.
While the market is buoyant most annalists will agree this type of lending is OK. Think about it if you lend on a 100,000 house 125% which results in a loan of 125,000 and the house price rises over the next three years at a rate of 10% per annum, which was not unheard of. Then your LTV in three years time would only be 93% this is alright from a lending point of view and what would be considered an acceptable risk.
The problem now is that rather than rising by 10% per annum the housing prices are in fact dropping by that much, and they are set to drop even more. If you consider that drop, if a lender was to give 85,000 on a 100,000 property which continued to drop in value, in 3 years the LTV could rise to 118%, which in these turbulent times is simply not acceptable. This is why lenders are now slow to lend out quantities much over 85%.
So with regards to the money bailouts, what does this mean for our financial future? In my professional opinion I believe that there will be little overall effect, although with any luck time will prove me wrong. Although lenders are now obliged to lend in 2009 at the rates of 2007, as you will see from the first part of this article they won't be able to lend at the high LTV rates of 2007. The people who are now desperate to borrow are those coming out of rates already arranged in the past 5 years, and these borrowers are going to push the LTV to its limit because of the drop in house prices.
Another thing to consider is the high amount of self certification mortgages that have been arranged over the last 5 years. These types of mortgages will definitely be a rarity because they are seen as to high a risk and the institutions don?t want to know. And even if they are available the LTV will be far lower so what are the consequences in that scenario?
In conclusion, although the cash injections can only be welcomed as a step in the right direction, I fear that there will be little knock on effect whilst housing prices continue to plummet and lenders fail to meet the level of lending that was rife before 2008. It seems more likely that the money will be stored up for the future. This will unfortunately create a catch-22 situation where the prices continue to fall because of the low LTVs and the tight lending criteria, in turn making the lenders more nervous about lending. It seems to me that the only way out will be for someone to bite the bullet and take the risks again at lending, even taking into account the possible risks involved. - 15224
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